Monday, September 03, 2007

4 Days and A Theory...


If you haven't already been devastated, then let me be the one to inform you that the CCAA only processed 4 days this past month. In fact, according to my friend Sara's blog, they have only processed 4 months in the past year.
This is what I think is going on. You can believe it or pass it by. If you have a theory, I'd love to hear it. Please leave it in comments.
This is my take...
  1. There is a monthly quota of children being allowed out of the country.
  2. SN children are being given priority.
  3. When all of the SN children have their slots, whatever is left is filled with NSN children until that months quota is filled.
  4. That is why we are seeing our friends with SN children coming home with their babes, while we are going nowhere.

This doesn't leave me hopeful that we will be seeing our daughter anytime soon unless we move to SN. 3 years doesn't even seem likely.

30 comments:

mrs incredible said...

No theories from me, just a hug. I've only done SN adoptions, so I can't even imagine waiting 2-3 years. My heart is with you!

kris said...

No theories from me either, I'll say what I said to Dawn and Dale- hang in there and finish this dang marathon, because what goes UP must come DOWN.

That's just a law of nature, and I'm baking on it... may not happen in October, or November, but damn it's gonna happen eventually.

jennifer said...

Wow, I hadn't heard that yet! 4 DAYS! That's crazy. I think we might end up going the SN route, but Richard isn't ready for that yet, so we'll see how it goes. Your theory makes sense even though it's very depressing!

Ashley said...

Oh my goodness. I can only imagine how devastated so many waiting families are right now. I had no clue about how s-l-o-w this process was going. Doesn't seem fair, does it? All these families that are willing and waiting to welcome a new baby into their lives and cannot be placed with babies that need a family to love them. Geez. Praying for ya! (((hugs)))

Nancy said...

This is a real bummer. I had been reading on other's blogs that RQ had said they had gotten into December. I was really thinking they would have made progress.

kerri said...

Not venturing a guess, I just want to I'm sorry for those families in waiting.
My heart feels the weight of your disappointment.

Joannah said...

I think you're probably pretty close to being right. I'm sorry. I so wish things were different.

Isabella's Mommy & Daddy said...

Love the song...
I think that they should raise the quota... because if they don't they are going to have a lot of older children not being adopted out..due to the SN going first priority..
Well I don't know ... just kind of disappointing..
Blogger hugs..
Kim

mommy24treasures said...

my theory is its the Olympics plain and simple. I am just so sorry for the children and the families.

crazylady said...

It really is true. Love makes time stand still.

Erica and Brian said...

Hi from your January DTC group! I have to agree with the Olympics theory... China is trying to control so many variables in order to look good for the Olympics, it just makes sense to me that they would limit the number of children being adopted so that they have low adoption number to report. I just can't figure out if things will pick up when the 2008 calendar year begins, or if we will have to wait until the Olympics are over for the numbers of children referred to increase again. This wait is hard, but I just feel so sorry for all the children that are going to have to wait longer for families.

theghelertertwins.blogspot.com said...

I don't know what to think. I'd be a total alcholic by now if I were in the waiting process. It's so upsetting to me. STAY OFF RQ. That will put you over the edge.....

nikki said...

Whatever the reasoning behind this ridiculous slow down, I cannot help but think that it WILL get better. I am an eternal optimist at heart. But, I will wait with all of my friends as long as it takes to see them bring their sweet babies home.
Hugs, girlie!

Jeff and Michelle said...

I will chime in here. Your theory is interesting, and I think makes sense. A long time ago I heard that it was the Olympics. I didn't believe it. At that time I didn't really understand a lot about the chinese culture. I know a lot more now. Then when I was looking into doing an interim domestic adoption, when I wasn't sure if we would go the special needs route, I talked to a christian adoption attorney here. I know them well, and they said that in their circle of attorneys, and knowing some that work in China, etc, they really believe it is the Olympics that is causing the huge slow down. I then began to realize that this really may be the case. I think a few months after the Olympics, things will begin to change, and pick up speed again. Just my two cents!

Janet said...

WAH! That's me, crying. FOUR DAYS!??? What's up with that?

Much Ado said...

4 days, yeah hard to believe and yet not....so happy for those referred this month but so gutted for the thousands of us still waiting....we are in this together for the long haul - you know I love that song!

Steffie B. said...

I know....been sharing emails back and forth with Verna and Becky over this as well!

Back to school today.....hope you have a great day my friend!

chloesmama said...

I agree that the problem is, in part, the Olympics. You have to remember that November of 2005 was also a HUGE HUGE month of dossiers, too. Another really big one is supposed to be March of 2006. That's why things seem so slow now. I wouldn't really worry unless this snail's pace keeps up into December through February LID's. I'm with Kris. What goes up must come down...eventually.

Mark and Rebecca said...

Hard to take. I do still believe that the timing is not God's mistake. I am trying to see what is that God is doing. What are we supposed to learn? Sigh...I am faithful, but also have to be open to feeling a little sad about the ever extending wait.

Jeter Mama said...

just speechless

Carolyn said...

I think the slowdown is mostly due to the huge #s of dossiers logged-in during late 2005. But I believe you are right- there has to be a monthly (& yearly) limit in terms of the #s of files that are matched. I've heard that placed at about 10,000 per year- both sn and nsn.
The wait looks pretty long, huh? Have you ever wondered if Sophie might be somewhere other than China? Or if she might be on a WC list? Hard things to consider, I know. Wishing you peace.

redmaryjanes said...

We were put on the list last month to see the Waiting Child list. The next one comes out in November our SW told us. She also said that we weren't an ideal family because we already had 4 children. I know that my daughter is in China. I can't really explain it, I just know. We won't be going to another country. SN is not a problem for us if we find Sophia on a SN list, we will scoop her up and take her home : )

sea star said...

No theories...just sick of it all.

sea star said...

Hey, I did take your choice of names. How's it working for me? I might change it again soon though. Keeping people on their toes!

Verna said...

Hugs from another hurting "waiter" here in MN. No theories just a lot of pent up aggitation at the whole system. When I read the RQ post about 4 months in the last year it just made me sick in the stomach. Trying to keep the faith but waivering this week. Love your back to school header. The Blog Fairy will have to get to work so that I'm distracted for the next, say, 3 yrs. ;)

Lynn said...

RMJ-

I completely agree with all of your theories.

1.Quota in place regardless of SN or NSN

2. Those that switched to SN have moved up in line and are pushing everyone else back.

Frustating for me since my agency doesn't have a SN program... tried to switch 9 months ago.

As far as 4 days... if you look at the current poll from RQ and you add up the number of matched families each referral cycle for the last 4 months you can see that 4 days was actually on the 'good' side.

Predicting at least a 10 day batch next month. (maybe 11)

The average overall rate of referrals is 10 days per cycle, this will speed up a hair once they get through November and slow down once again when they start March.

If you figure out how many days from Nov 25, 2005 until your LID, you can divide those days by 10, 11, 12 etc to get an idea of how many months until your referral...

Any questions on how to do this in Excel or how I came up with my October prediction, e-mail me or post on my blog!

Cheer up, November is almost through!

Next time I'm starting with SN!!

secret agent said...

I have a zillion conspiracy theories which get me flamed all over the place.

I. am. getting.so. fed. up.

Alyson & Ford said...

I think - we think - a like.

...and The Wait continuessssssss.

Peace
fm

Kimber said...

Hmmm. my husband really think it has to do with the Olympics and the "image" China wants to present. I don't know. Others also think they are keeping girls so all of the boys have people to marry later on? My heart aches for all of the waiting familes. I do know from experience that the journey (read-wait) changes you in ways you didn't even know you needed to be changed.

hugs,
Kim

Lisa said...

I concur. I just checked in from my moving drama. I have been away for about a week. 4 days...don't know if we can continue with no end in sight. We will see how it goes the next couple of months I guess. I think the Olympics are in play here too. But are they just slowly closing down like other programs? I am so sad and waiting for a speed.